FORECASTING DROUGHT PROBABILITIES NE US

FORECASTING DROUGHT PROBABILITIES NE US

$16.00

Available

Add to cart

We accept Visa, Mastercard, American Express, and Discover cards.

Product Details

Product Number: 534052
Series: SIR-2021-5084
Scale: NO SCALE
Alternate ID: SIR-2021-5084
Authors: SAMUEL H AUSTIN
Version Date: 01/01/2021
Countries: USA
Media: Paper
Format: Bound

Additional Details

Description: Forecasting Drought Probabilities for Streams in the Northeastern United States

First posted September 2, 2021
For additional information, contact:
Director, Virginia and West Virginia Water Science Center U.S. Geological Survey 1730 East Parham Road Richmond, Virginia 23228

Abstract

Maximum likelihood logistic regression (MLLR) models for the northeastern United States forecast drought probability estimates for water flowing in rivers and streams using methods previously identified and developed. Streamflow data from winter months are used to estimate chances of hydrological drought during summer months. Daily streamflow data collected from 1,143 streamgages from April 1, 1877, through October 31, 2018, are used to provide hydrological drought streamflow probabilities for July, August, and September as functions of streamflows during October, November, December, January, and February. This allows estimates of outcomes from 5 to 11 months ahead of their occurrence. Models specific to the northeastern United States were investigated and updated. The MLLR models of drought stream-flow probabilities utilize the explanatory power of temporally linked water flows. Models with strong drought streamflow probability correct-classification rates were produced for streams throughout the northeastern United States. A test of northeastern United States drought streamflow probability predictions found that overall correct-classification rates for drought streamflow probabilities in the northeastern United States exceeded 97 percent when predicting July 2019 drought probability using February 2019 monthly mean streamflow data. Using hydrological drought probability estimates in a water-management context informs understandings of possible future streamflow drought conditions in the northeastern United States, provides warnings of potential future drought conditions, and aids water-management decision making and responses to changing circumstances.
Print Date: 2021
Height In Inches: 11.000
Length In Inches: 8.500
Two Sided: Yes
Pieces: 1
Languages: English

Related Items

Prepared in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality <p> <p> Methods for Estimating Drought Streamflow Probabilities for Virginia Streams <p>

NUTRIENT TRENDS STREAMS AND RIVERS OF US

Nutrient Trends in Streams and Rivers of the United States, 1993-2003

Hydrologic Drought of Water Year 2006 Compared with Four Major Drought Periods of the 20th Century in Oklahoma

For all orders a $5.00 USD handling charge is applied. For Senior Passes, Military Passes, and Access Pass an additional $5.00 processing fee is applied. To protect your order during transit, products of different publication types and sizes may be shipped in separate packages. Gift Cards of any kind are not accepted.

Current in-house processing time: Shipping times are estimations after the package has been shipped from the USGS warehouse. Orders may take up to 10 business days to be shipped.